“TEN BILLION AND CATASTROPHE?” BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

The polls say we no longer fear man-made global warming very much. However, now that the scaremongers can’t make us afraid of GW they’re recycling their most reliable scare—overpopulation. Two new books, Ten Billion, by Stephen Emmot and Population: Ten Billion, by Dan Dorley, claim too many people will bring on disaster. They claim humanity will be doomed by the combination of overpopulation, climate change and species loss.

This is a repeat of the wrong-headed “overpopulation” scares of the past. Looking back, there was Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb, 1968; Thomas Malthus’s An Essay on the Princip of Population, 1766; and even Quintus Septimus Florens Terullianus, an early Christian Church leader, wrote on the subject while living in sparsely populated AD 200.

Oddly, this claim has new proponents just as the world’s birth rate has reached an all time low. Births per woman in the poor countries have fallen from 6.2 at the end of World War II to about 2.6 today. The First World is already well below replacement, with birth rates still falling. The UN projections indicate only 6.2 billion people on the planet in 2100!

As for species loss, only three mammals have gone extinct on the world’s continents in the last 500 years according to the Committee on Recently Extinct Organisms of the American Museum of Natural History. Another 58 mammals went extinct from islands, due primarily to humans bringing in such alien species as rats and cats. The story is similar for birds.

The overpopulation authors are also despairing about our “hidden water use” Emmot, a Microsoft “computational scientist,” asserts that it takes 3,000 liters of water to produce a hamburger (counting the grass eaten and the water drunk). In real life, if the cattle disappeared from their pastures, the rain would still fall and then run to the sea.

Climate change? The planet has not warmed for at least 15 years. Something shifted in the climate cycling, and climate modelers are trying desperately to claim that they forecasted this interruption—rather than the “unprecedented” warming they actually did forecast.

The worst sin of the “ten billion” books, however, is asserting that societies with elected government can’t save themselves! Democratic India’s birth rate will soon match that of Chairman Mao’s forced one-child China. However, unlike China, India will have some young workers to support the oldsters.

Humanity’s fear of societal collapse is natural, given that few of our cultures have lasted more than 500 years. My research indicates, however, that “overpopulation” has had little to do with it.

Climate change, on the other hand, has had everything to do with our collapses:

 * The Mayans supported about 15 million people in the jungles of the Yucatan, for centuries. Then came a century-long “little ice age” drought at 800 BC, and 95 percent of the Mayans starved or disappeared into the surrounding jungle.

* The Nile made Egypt the most sustainable human culture—except the Nile failed Egypt for centuries at a time: after 2200 BC, after 1650 BC, and after 1200 BC. Each time, huge numbers of Egyptians died.

* Angkor Wat and its fabulous temples in Cambodia collapsed twice—in the Dark Ages at AD 600, and again during the Little Ice Age after AD 1300. Droughts and floods meant no rice, no food, no culture.

Sustainability is a moving target. Mother Nature has periodically starved its humans, its mammals, birds, and even the plant life. The “little ice ages” are a permanent part of the earth’s 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger warming-cooling cycle.

Before we understood climate cycles, humans blamed themselves for bad weather. The ancients feared they had angered the gods. Many captives, virgins, and elderly “witches” paid the ultimate price. Today, when we should recognize the Modern Warming as a natural rebound from the Little Ice Age, affluent countries are threatening to commit worldwide economic “sacrifice” to, again, appease the climate gods.  It didn’t work then, It won’t work now.

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A CLIMATE DEBATE: BOTH SIDES SHOWED UP! BY DENNIS T. AVERY

I just took part in a remarkable event: a public debate over manmade global warming in which both sides appeared—and the Associated Press reported on it!  I have been invited to many of these events over the past six years, but the warmists always canceled when they found a skeptic was part of the deal.

John Christy, from the University of Alabama/Huntsville, opened the debate. He graphed the climate models’ projections of huge warming—made just before the non-warming of the past 16 years. As usual, he gave a great presentation.

Mark Morano of the Climate Depot website spoke about the politics of the man-made warming campaign, and economist Myron Ebell talked about green energy’s horrendous and mounting costs.

On the warming side, Dr. Scott Denning of ColoradoStateUniversity insisted that CO2 emitted heat, and more CO2 meant a warmer planet. He was corrected by Dr. Tom Sheehan, an MIT-trained physicist. Sheehan said CO2 does not give off heat, it merely absorbs heat and then diffuses it again.

Dr. James Hurrell of The National Center for Atmospheric Research said we should all respect the science that is telling us a huge warming is on the way, but he couldn’t tell us when the modeling would finally prove accurate.

Annie Petunk of the Environmental Defense Fund waxed eloquent about her girlhood in Appalachia, but said nothing about the EDF’s efforts to eliminate West Virginia’s coal industry.

I showed the highly variable temperature record of the past 10,000 years, with an abrupt  warming or cooling shift every 700 years or so. I warned that the abrupt climate impacts on people had been far greater than we would have expected from a temperature shift of only 2–4 degrees C.

The 2–4 C drop, along with accompanying shorter grower seasons is literally a killer and is the pattern that goes back at least 1 million years.

Nor is today’s weather “more extreme.” During the “little ice ages,” today’s Iraq typically got 300-year droughts, which starved virtually its entire population. Egypt suffered six periods when centuries of inadequate Nile floods caused famines so severe that people ate their children. Farther north, the “little ice ages” in Europe and Northern China drowned the crops with violent rains and heavy flooding.

Dr. Hurrell said he agreed that the past warmings and “little ices ages” were real. He insisted, however, that today’s warming—coming right after the 550-year Little Ice Age—was “different.” He noted that higher temperatures had already produced more and heavier rainfall, and more drying of the soil surface.

I pointed out that Dr Phil Jones, the guru of the whole warmist movement, recently told BBC the warming from 1976–1998 “could not be statistically distinguished” from the earlier warming periods at 1915–1940 and 1860–1880. Those warmings also featured heavier rainfalls and drier soil temperatures. (The hotter years of the 1930s, in fact. produced the Dust Bowl!)

The “scientific consensus” can no longer be defended simply by “votes” from modelers and environmental activists. The costs of energy and job loss are becoming too great too fast—even for the Europeans who led the scare.  Europe is now abandoning its green investors, even as Europe’s industries plan investments in the U.S. where they can benefit from low-cost shale gas.

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PRINCE CHARLES: TOO “GREEN” TO BE KING, BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

Prince Charles recently made his most  outspoken criticism yet of the world’s failure to reduce CO2  emissions. Meanwhile, British families have seen no global warming trend in 16  years, while their electric bills have doubled to support expensive and  unreliable wind turbines.

Is Prince  Charles now too “green” to be king of Britain? Until recently most Britons  seemed almost as eager to get rid of fossil fuels as Charles. Now, however,  electricity blackouts threaten, and “fuel poverty” looms for perhaps half of the  nation’s families. Britain’s industries, meanwhile, are  threatening to leave the country. Many are eying the much-lower energy costs in America, thanks to the shale gas  revolution that President Obama seems powerless to stop. Potential nuclear power  plant investors are also deterred by the low-cost shale gas.

Commentator Dominic Lawson wrote in the Sunday  Times: . . . In “medicine, agriculture, architecture and energy production,  the prince is taking positions that are intensely partisan; and some of these  are areas in which decisions have monumental economic implications for every  family in the land. . . . The prince certainly needs someone to point out to him  that the planet is not ‘dying’ and that it was just fine when CO2  concentrations were vastly higher than they are now or are ever likely to be as  a result of whatever amount of fossil fuels we burn.”

Peter Wilby wrote in The Guardian on May  10th: “Prince Charles should have remained silent. Charles strays  into areas of political dispute over what should be done [about global warming].  Charles’s lack of judgment may explain why, though he will take over duties such  as attending Commonwealth heads of government conference, the Queen will not  agree to either abdication or a regency. Charles is a dangerously divisive  figure. . .” 

Jonathan Brown said in The Independent last  November 23rd that the Prince: “is a good representative of the  environmental movement” but added that the “extreme alarm and extreme concern  doesn’t convince any governments or any ministers, and in the end it is over the  top and won’t be heard.”

Britain has long demanded that its  monarchs remain non-political. Prince Phillip has come close to crossing that  line, saved by the fact that he is not a king, merely the husband of a queen.  Charles has been free to express his many activist views as long as Queen  Elizabeth keeps the reigns firmly in her hands.

Since Brown’s column, the energy situation in Britain  has gotten steadily worse. The wind turbines are failing to produce reliable  energy, and, therefore, must be backed by fossil energy in spinning reserve.  Meanwhile, Britain’s North Sea gas is running out.

Prince Charles’s deeply felt positions on energy are  likely to be even less comfortable for a suffering UK public in the years ahead. America’s NASA announced in 2008 that  the Pacific had entered its cool phase, which implies moderately cooler global  temperatures until roughly 2030 at least. Queen Elizabeth is highly unlikely to  occupy the throne for so long.

Will  King Charles then declaim about man-made warming from the British throne?  How will his protests impact public  opinion—and the royal family— if the country is suffering brown-outs and fuel poverty in a world that  stubbornly refuses to obey the computerized climate models?

 

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A CLIMATE CYCLE DELIVERED OUR COLD SPRING, BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

Lots of us are commenting on the U.S. having the second coldest spring in the official thermometer record (starting ca. 1860) and the coldest since 1975. Remember, too, that in 1975 major news magazines were predicting a sudden return to the next Ice Age! This cold spring highlights another climate cycle that has nothing to do with CO2.

The cycle that link the two coldest springs is the 60-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Both of these cold springs occurred during a cold phase in the Pacific, which is the planet’s largest heat sink. When the sun is very warm, the Pacific absorbs much of that heat. When the sun is less warm, the Pacific gradually cools. Scientists don’t yet understand clearly why the sun varies in total activity. We do understand, however, that this is the reason global temperatures move up and down in spurts of about 30 years. The PDO is a relatively short cycle superimposed on the longer 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and the 100,000-year Ice Age cycle.

The PDO wasn’t discovered until 1996. Fish experts began to realize that something was periodically shifting the salmon’s ocean food (plankton and tiny crustaceans) north and south—from the Columbia River region to the Gulf of Alaska and back. It happened about every 30 years. The salmon’s food like warmth better than cold, so when the Pacific is cooler, the salmon and their food supply thrive farther south.

Fish catch records show the PDO was cool from 1890–1924, warm from 1925–46, cool again from 1940–1976, and warm again from 1976 to about 2007. NASA’s Jason satellite confirmed in 2008 that the PDO had shifted cool again in 2007. That means the cold springs are likely to remain a feature of our weather until about 2037.

By the way, the salmon catches are erratically recovering in the Pacific Northwest. Last year Oregon’s best run was Chinook salmon, with a total catch of 380,000 compared to just 35,000 in 2008 as the cycle was just beginning to turn cold. By the time the 1976 cooling was winding down Oregon was catching more than 1 million Chinook per year.

Last week, Germany’s Green Radio (sponsored by its Federal Department of the Environment) interviewed an expert identified as Henrik Kirchof about the world’s interrupted global warming. He said, “A big role may be played by the oceans . . . if the surface water temperatures increased sharply until 15 years ago but now have stagnated, then it means that the ocean is absorbing more heat than it did before. You can suspect this, it’s very plausible, but you cannot prove it because of [measurement problems].”

Sorry, Dr. Kirchof, but there’s another possibility—that the oceans are receiving less heat from a “quiet “ sun during a long and cool sunspot cycle. What if the sun is in charge of our climate after all?

Be grateful for our moderate warming. When it stops warming, history tells us the climate will get far colder and more violent. In history, Europe’s population nearly tripled during the warm phases when food was plentiful, then shrank radically as starvation and food wars arrived with the cold.

We should expect some additional global warming after this PDO ends, as occurred from 1976–1998, but nothing as dangerous as the computers models claim. Unless our paltry increase in human-emitted CO2 emissions have somehow rearranged the whole universe, the sun will continue to be the controlling factor in our climate.

 

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BILLIONAIRE “FORCING” CLIMATE CHANGE, BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

A Wall Street billionaire is pledging to spend “whatever it takes” to make manmade global warming the “defining issue of our generation.” Most recently, he sent airplanes with banners over Boston that read “Steve Lynch for Oil Evil Empire.” Lynch, a fellow Democrat and Senate candidate, favors the Keystone pipeline and the jobs it would create.

“The goal here is not to win,” says Tom Steyer, who assembled his $1.4 billion fortune as a hedge fund manager. “The goal here is to destroy these people, We want a smashing victory.” Smash any politicians who might “wimp out” on the harsh policies necessary to change the world into Steyer’s “green energy” image. Spoken like a true Big Board Type-A personality,

Notice, however, that Steyer isn’t offering to help us pay the extra cost of the green energy systems he demands, That would cost too much even for a billionaire. Germany’s environment minister, Peter Altmeier, recently disclosed that his country’s green energy transition will cost $1.310 trillion dollars! Moreover, the $1.310 trillion would only fund the green energy transition for Germany, a small country with just 82 million people, At the German rate of $15,000 per capita, would the world of 7 billion people look forward to spending $100 trillion for the whole global green transformation? There isn’t that much money in the world, and with green energy limitations there won’t ever be that much.

Green energy also costs more to operate. And all of this wouldn’t even reduce CO2 emissions, That’s because there isn’t any really “green” energy. Europe’s solar and wind energy are so erratic they must be backed 90 percent by fossil power plants in “spinning reserve.” The only real “solution” for the CO2 problem is nuclear, which isn’t on anybody’s ballot.

Steyer also needs to be aware of the limitations even of a victory at the polls, A narrow win like Obama’s last won’t be enough to force an energy policy that’s viscerally opposed by the average American, The shale gas revolution is now in full swing, thanks to America’s private property laws and the public’s recent cheerful experience with “fracking.” Natural gas is far cheaper here than in Europe, and EU chemical and plastics makers are shifting their investments to expand the jobs here instead,

It is doubtful that even the EPA will dare trying to push the shale gas back underground —or that an administration can continue to rule effectively while defending such a rule,

Add in the recent discovery of 3 trillion tons of coal undersea off Norway, and recent successes in bringing up natural gas from massive deposits of methane hydrates underneath the Pacific (Japan) and tundra (Alaska),

Steyer’s final hurdle, of course, is the lack of warming, The satellite readings show no warming trend since 1997. There has been only a modest warming since 1940 even with the official thermometers shifting ever more heavily into urban heat islands. And the ice record tell us the earth’s temperature naturally shifts, abruptly, by 2–4 degree C roughly every 700 years, The modelers can’t explain why the Modern Warming is different from the Medieval Warming.

The current non-warming trend—and very possibly a moderate cooling—is likely to last until about 2037 because of a Pacific cooling cycle, Steyer’s billion will run out long before then.

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THE DAM IS ABOUT TO BREAK, BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

When a dam is about to break, the first sign of collapse is a little trickle of water over its top. Last, week Geoffrey Lean of London’s Telegraph scooped a little trickle of water over the top of the man-made warming dam—which has been holding back human hopes for decades. Lean has been an environmental correspondent for 40 years, and no one had more loudly demanded lowered CO2 emissions “to protect the planet.”

On April 5, Lean admitted “recent research suggests that climate change might not be as catastrophic as the gloomiest predictions suggest.” Not that he’d been wrong, of course; the man-made warming will still be “extreme.”

It’s not much of a back-off, but the continuing pressure of the non-warming will soon crumble the whole rotten blockage into the valley—sweeping terrified Green true believers willy-nilly across the landscape.

Lean’s statement follows the March 30 issue of the Economist, which admitted that the earth might not be as sensitive to additional CO2 as the climate models had told us. Months earlier, the big German magazine Der Spiegel had “adopted” Fritz Vahrenholt, and his best-selling book, The Cold Sun. That book documented the natural and moderate 1,500-year climate cycle that gave us the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warming, the Dark Ages, and similar cycles back into prehistory.

Did the natural climate cycle also give us our Modern Warming? This is the trillion-dollar question that the media and the EPA refuse to address. They’d counted on not having to address it. After all, they had all the first-world nations standing on the edge of the energy cliff and promising to jump on the count of three.

Then it stopped warming.

Now the ultimate irony: The public is waiting for the same mainstream media that declared the false emergency to tell us when it’s over! Naturally, the “journalists” are waiting as long as possible before admitting their culpability, hoping we will forget or they will retire. The true believers still represent perhaps one-third of our public. The IPCC will unveil its 5th assessment this year, just as thought somebody still cares. The Environmental Protection Agency stands ready to tax cost-effective coal out of American power plants. For what valid purpose?

Even so, the game is over. We are the losers, especially the poor. The less skilled in America cannot find jobs. The Third World’s even-poorer people cannot get a little kerosene to save their women and children from indoor wood fires and lung cancer. The winners didn’t win much beyond those plane tickets to Bali and the chance to preen in front of their “less-sustainable” neighbors.

Will there ultimately be penalties against the scammers?  What to do about the “scientists” who parlayed computer-modeled “evidence” into a global scare while garnering billions of dollars in grants for themselves? They knew that a Modern Warming must follow the Little Ice Age.

Worse were the First-Amendment “journalists” who were charged with protecting us from such trickery. And how about all those well-educated people who told us CO2 warming was too complicated to explain—either because they hadn’t bothered to understand it or because they wanted higher taxes for income re-distribution.

We can’t blame our government, however. Any government will cheerfully accept any excuse to increase its own power and taxing authority. It doesn’t matter much whether that government is led by Hugo Chavez, Barack Obama, or Mother Theresa. The late great H.L. Mencken warned us “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”  This is a line to remember.

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IS WARMING THE “CIVILIZATION-KILLER”?, BY DENNIS T. AVERY

Author Eugene Linden writes books on the far edge of the environmental movement. He recently wrote, a bit hysterically, in The Daily Beast: “we need leaders with the courage to steamroll the deniers and the vested interests . . . Climate change is a civilization killer, and if we go on down the climate rapids…” I am not sure what “steamrolling entails; but I do know, that the warmer periods are the civilization savers.

Clearly, Linden knows exactly nothing about the forces that have killed off every culture prior to our own—most of them for centuries at a time and many of them permanently. With few exceptions, the hundreds of failed cultures collapsed in the “little ice age” phases of the natural 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycle. No one has dared disagree on that.

Did the Greenland Vikings die out during the warmth of the Medieval Warming, or did they disappear after the arrival of the Little Ice Age, when vicious winter temperatures fell more than 4 degrees C? Even the Inuit disappeared!

Did the Viking raiders terrify Europe for 250 years during the long warmth of the climatically stable Roman Warming—or during the advancing sea ice and the desperate drop in Scandinavia’s codfish catch during the Dark Ages that followed?

Egypt’s fabulous Nile River culture has been regarded as humanity’s most sustainable—but the Old Kingdom collapsed for centuries at 2200 BC, the Middle Kingdom again collapsed for more centuries at 1640 BC, and the New Kingdom fell in desperate famine at 1085 BC. Each collapse period marked the onset of a “little ice age” when the Nile floods failed.

The fabulous temples and their supporting rice culture at Angkor Wat collapsed twice. They built a thriving culture during Roman Warming and lost everything to the Dark Ages. During the Medieval Warming the temples we see today were built; the civilization disappeared forever during the Little Ice Age. The great cathedrals of Europe and the Sun Temple in India were also built during the Medieval Warming.

The Fordham University Medieval Sourcebook estimates the population of Europe at 27 million during the Roman Warming, 18 million during the Dark Ages, 73.5 million in the Medieval Warming, and 50 million during the Little Ice Ages. Tell us again what kills civilizations, Mr. Linden.

Warming always brings more vegetation, which in ancient history meant more game animals for the hunting bands. Warming produced long, sunny summers and lots of grain as civilization settled into farming—until the famines of the next little ice age.

The warmings and coolings of our 1500-year cycle last only about 500–750 years. But Mother Earth’s most “recent” long-term warming was called the Holocene Optimum. It lasted from 9,000–5,000 BC, with the Arctic about 4 degrees C warmer than today, and Siberian winters 3–9 degrees warmer than today. The Arctic Ocean was virtually ice-free, according to the Norwegian Geological Survey. Glaciers melted in the Alps and the Andes, and both the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps show the shift. Now that is a warming, and all the species living today went through it.

Oddly enough, NOAA is on record now saying, “In summary, the mid-Holocene, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. Moreover, we clearly know the cause of this natural warming, and know without doubt that this proven“astronomical” climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years.”

Can we ask “why not?” Dr. Phil Jones, the man-made warmist guru from Britain’s University of East Anglia told the BBC that the global warmings 1860–1880 and 1915–1940 were not caused by CO2 (which didn’t surge until after 1940). He says only the 1976–98 warming was man-made—then he admits that the three periods are “statistically indistinguishable.”

So how do we know that the sun, which causes our days and nights, our summers and winters, and our 90,000-year Ice Ages, and 4,000-year warmings does not also control the 1,500-year climate cycle? Seabed sediments show the cycle goes back at least one million years!

Did the sun that warmed us up from the Little Ice Age suddenly take a vacation about 1975—and if so, why?

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GEOLOGIST SAYS MARCOTT’S CO2 THESIS FAILED, BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

Geologist Don Easterbrookhas commented on a new computer study that claims “current global temperatures of the past decade . . . are warmer than during 75 percent of the Holocene temperature history.” [i]Easterbrook says the Marcott paper is “totally at odds with the Greenland ice core data, the ‘gold standard’ of paleoclimate research, as attested by hundreds of real-world studies of past global temperature proxies.” [ii]

The Greenland ice layers say there have been 20 different centuries-long periods since the last Ice Age when the earth has been as warm or warmer than the Medieval Warming—which was warmer than today. All those past centuries of warm weather were thus warmer than our current temperatures.

  • At least six of these previous warm periods were as warm as the Medieval Warming Period.
  • Nine were 0.5 degree C warmer than the Medieval Warming.
  • Two warm periods were 1 degree C warmer then the Medieval.
  • Three warm periods were 1.5 degrees C warmer than the Medieval

Each of these twenty warm periods was matched by commensurate coolings, in the semi-erratic Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles that last 1,500 years (plus or minus 500). Until the earth’s cycles were discovered in the Greenland ice cores in 1984, we’d thought of the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warming as events, not parts of a very old cycle. The “researchers” like Marcott who believe in man-made warming have never told their computers about this widely documented “natural variability” in the earth’s climate history.

And yes, the Medieval Warming was global. My book, Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years documented numerous Southern Hemisphere Medieval Warming proxies: Peruvian fossil pollen, South African cave stalagmites, New Zealand glacier melting and Antarctic lake sediments—to cite a few among many.

The Marcott paper attempts to make us believe something has gone dramatically wrong with the earth’s climate because of human-emitted CO2. However, Phil Jones, the man-made warming guru from Britain’sUniversity of East Anglia, was interviewed by the BBC’s Roger Harrabin in 2010. He told the BBC that the 1975–98 warming was not statistically different from the previous two warm spurts. Jones then stated that the previous warming spurts from 1860–1880 and 1910–1940 were not caused by human activity, but he has said that the warming spurt from 1975–98 was man-made.

This should immediately have raised a key science question: If the warming trend that started in 1850 was not caused by human activity, what did cause that dramatic reversal of the planet’s 550-year cooling? Jones seems to indicate that this modern warming was due to the D-O cycle. If the“man-made” temperature spurt from 1975–98 was not statistically different from the two earlier recent warmings, how can we say with “90 percent confidence” that it was man-made?

Only then do we get to the puzzling recent non-warming. That’s easy. The thermometer record has trended upward and downward in 30-year spurts. This is just the heavy hand of the 60-year (30 and 30) Pacific Decadal Oscillation, reflecting temperatures in the earth’s largest heat sink. The modelers agree that this is “natural variability” and another part of our wonderful global heating and cooling cycle. While the modern warming indicates a gradual warming will take place over the next couple of hundred years the temperature within that reality will spurt up and down thirty years at a stretch.

Let me get this straight. We don’t know why the Little Ice Age ended unless it was the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle. We all agree the temperatures warmed from 1860–1880 and 1910–1940 because of the PDO cycle. It did not warm in a pattern statistically different in 1975–98. Still, we know for virtually certain that 1975–98 was due to CO2.

Thus our concern for the public and our grandchildren forces us to tax people trillions of dollars, and consign them to the mercies of hugely expensive and highly erratic energy sources that won’t keep the lights on in the hospitals or the food in our freezers cold. The Third World will be forbidden to burn coal, their only potential source of modern economic growth. We will never ever use the nuclear power that the Greens hate even though it emits no CO2.

Now I understand. But I wonder why no one is worried that each “warm” period”is progressively cooler. How long before our sun wears out? Worry about that before you worry about the blessings of the Modern Warming.

 

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BRITAIN NARROWLY ESCAPES “GREEN” BLACKOUT, BY DENNIS T. AVERY

For years, many of us have warned the “green energy” craze would throw First World countries into blackouts, factory knockouts, more deaths among the elderly and all manner of avoidable tragedies. It nearly happened to Britain in January, as bitterly cold weather put a massive strain on Britain’s creaking power plants.

London’s Sunday Express says 1 million homes narrowly escaped blackout last month as the island suffered its fifth harsh winter in a row. Blackout was only avoided because of an oil-fired power station, which is, itself, due to be closed before next winter. Only now, after 30 years of cheerleading, are British media finally waking up to the awful future they have been demanding.

The basic problem: Britain feels it put man-made warming on the world map with its Met office and East Anglia University computers. They became determined to lead the world’s “green energy” revolution. However, Britain’s wind turbines, despite decades and billions in subsidized investment, today provide only 7 percent of its electricity. And the turbines must be backed by fossil fuel powered plants, in “spinning reserve,” equal to at least 80 percent of their installed capacity.

Meanwhile:

  1. A whole fleet of Britain’s older coal and oil-fired power stations are being phased out under an EU commandment driven by CO2 hysteria.
  2. They have scheduled another 10 percent of the generating capacity for phase-out next year.
  3. The Met Office has finally admitted there’s been none of the predicted man-made warming for 16 years!
  4. UK coal power is fading just as the North Sea gas, which has powered the UK’s newer stations, is running out.
  5. British leaders had been counting on a big new set of  new nuclear power plants, but the advent of fracking and cheap shale gas has frightened investors about the billions of investment dollars they might never get back.

After my New York Times best-seller, Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1,500 Years, came out in 2007, I wrote that the man-made warming frenzy would implode—but would meanwhile cost trillions in misdirected global investment dollars. The warmists since have been giving ground oh-so-slowly as the non-recoverable costs of the renewable fuels “investments” continue to mount.

The German industries that have powered the EU’s economic engine now threaten to leave Europe unless they can get energy as cheaply as India, China—and the U.S. (America’s shale gas revolution has pegged its natural gas prices at about one-third of Europe’s.)

Reuters reports German renewable energy subsidies may cost its consumers an extra $1.34 trillion over the next 20 years (about $6,400 per family)—but won’t provide much dependable power!

Elsewhere, Spain is being sued by green investors after it cut back unsustainable solar and wind subsidies over the past two years, and the Bulgarian government has resigned after consumer protests against high EU-mandated electricity costs.

In the U.S., James Hanson’s NASA continues to “adjust” the temperature records from the 1930s to mask the reality that they were higher than recent “record highs.” Our next big cost will be the dismantling of U.S. coal power. Obama has ordered his EPA to cut back electricity, starting with the coal-fired plants and working up to the natural gas from “fracking.” In case you might have forgotten, the President has not revised his basic goals, which include our having less energy available and only at prices “which will necessarily skyrocket.”

No one yet admits that the “Greenpeace Plan” would kick us back to the days of inner city walk-up apartments, with privies to match.

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GREENS NOW BETRAY THE WILD FISH, BY: DENNIS T. AVERY

The Food and Drug Administration just approved genetically modified salmon, which grow larger and faster than wild salmon. That’s excellent. There are only so many wild fish in the seas, and biotech salmon could help save wild salmon fisheries from crashing.

The world’s fishermen can’t catch more than the 90 million tons for per year they’ve been getting recently. Doctors meanwhile tell 7 billion people to eat more healthful fish. All over the world, the big increase in fish consumption since 1980 has come from fish farming. Today, 90 percent of the salmon eaten in the U.S. is farmed, here or overseas.

Prices for wild salmon are already too high for most households, and this will worsen as wild fish catches fall farther behind potential demand. Without farmed fish, we’ll see “fish poaching” such as threatens the rhinoceros and elephant. Or more of the mislabeling that is already common. Biotech salmon should help bring the health benefits of salmon within the reach of everyone.

The AquaAdvantage salmon get their extra genes from two other fish, one of them the related Coho species of salmon. The other is from the ocean pout, which has a gene that provides “anti-freeze” and lets the fish eat and grow even in the winter. The Coho salmon provides a gene that reinforces the modified salmon’s own growth hormone. As a result, the biotech fish grow up to 11 times faster than wild fish, and grow larger.

The FDA had long ago decided the biotech fish posed no unusual health risks to consumers and would make more fish available to more people at less cost through the century ahead. Alarmists, however, say the biotech fish will escape and contaminate the wild population. They also imply that our “maximum fishing” is a signal of human “overpopulation.” It’s not. But if it were, it is hard to see how having more salmon available to poorer populations in New York will increase family size decisions.

The world’s birth rate has already dropped from the historic 6 births per woman to about 2.5 births, and is set to start shrinking the human population soon after 2050. The UN Low Variant (which has been predictive in the past) projects human numbers falling from a peak of 8–9 billion in 2050 to 6.2 billion in 2100—and only 2.3 billion by 2300!

Could biotech salmon threaten the wild salmon populations? The FDA says it can’t see how. The biotech fish will be sterile, except for a small breeding stock kept in tanks on land, under tight guard. The sterile market salmon would be also grown on land, rather than in netted ocean pens.   

Society’s real problem is to feed that peak population without destroying the world’s wild fisheries, eroding all its cropland and plowing down most of its wildlife habitat to produce our food in the meantime. Fish farming and high-yield crops are two big parts of the answer. Stanford University recently estimated that higher-yield crops have saved 6.6 million square miles of wildlife habitat from becoming poor cropland since 1960. That’s the land area of South America, far more conservation success than the Sierra Club can claim.

Instead, the environmentalists offer “solutions” like organic farming and banning the healthful new biotech salmon. One alarmist website actually calls the FDA “lapdogs” for the salmon approval. Unfortunately, this is a pattern. The environmental movement has opposed nitrogen fertilizer, all synthetic pesticides, and even the genetically modified “gold rice,” which would save millions of little kids from blindness! All opposed with no evidence of harm. The lower yields from organic-only farming would mean severe hunger privation for hundreds of millions of people. Rest assured, tomorrow’s parents will feed their children, one way or another, even if they have to plow down the rain forests, put every remaining gorilla in a stew pot, and take every fish out of the ocean.

The land taken for farming is humanity’s biggest intrusion on nature. Thankfully, the world’s cropland has barely expanded at all since 1980, due to better seeds (some of them biotech) and nitrogen fertilizer. Now, if allowed to do so, biotech salmon can protect one of the critical fisheries, even as we consume more protective omega 3 fatty acids.

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